* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/19/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 86 79 73 68 59 49 41 32 25 22 19 18 19 20 22 22 V (KT) LAND 95 86 79 73 68 59 49 41 32 25 22 19 18 19 20 22 22 V (KT) LGEM 95 86 78 72 66 56 47 40 35 30 26 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 6 6 6 6 7 12 20 30 31 28 25 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 6 5 2 4 5 0 -2 -1 0 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 155 166 176 206 213 245 266 292 315 327 320 297 290 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.6 25.8 25.8 25.0 25.3 25.0 24.5 25.6 25.7 26.3 25.9 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 121 121 113 117 114 109 121 122 128 124 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 46 49 49 48 47 41 40 37 40 43 50 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 12 10 10 8 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -20 -19 -18 -15 0 3 16 8 26 17 22 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 -23 -32 -30 -20 -46 -34 -47 -25 -12 -10 4 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 3 2 4 7 3 0 3 5 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1981 2050 2122 2210 2241 2011 1737 1491 1260 1030 806 647 614 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.2 16.0 15.4 14.8 14.4 14.2 13.9 13.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.6 130.7 131.7 132.8 133.8 136.1 138.8 141.4 144.0 146.7 149.6 152.6 155.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -14. -20. -27. -33. -37. -40. -42. -44. -46. -48. -50. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -16. -22. -27. -36. -46. -54. -63. -69. -73. -76. -77. -76. -75. -73. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 16.2 129.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/19/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.07 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 721.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.09 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/19/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##