* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP072021 07/19/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 47 45 42 41 39 35 33 28 24 19 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 47 45 42 41 39 35 33 28 24 19 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 44 43 41 38 36 35 33 32 30 28 26 24 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 8 12 12 10 6 7 5 7 10 13 10 17 27 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 0 1 -1 6 2 0 1 -2 -2 0 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 300 307 307 307 319 340 325 329 318 309 264 294 274 278 275 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.9 25.8 25.9 25.4 24.3 23.9 24.3 24.5 23.3 24.0 23.7 23.9 24.3 24.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 122 124 119 107 103 107 109 96 104 100 102 107 108 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 2 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 58 58 57 54 52 48 44 42 43 42 42 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 20 21 20 20 19 18 16 15 13 11 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -5 -5 2 5 11 34 53 58 52 47 41 23 2 -31 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 53 36 33 46 -11 -21 0 -27 -13 -4 3 -17 -4 -5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -13 -14 -9 -2 -8 -10 -5 -10 -5 0 5 2 11 11 11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 683 764 830 930 1040 1287 1496 1744 1977 2179 1897 1637 1387 1121 842 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.0 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.0 19.0 18.8 18.5 18.3 18.2 18.1 18.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.9 116.2 117.5 118.9 120.3 123.2 126.1 129.0 131.5 134.1 136.8 139.3 141.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 13 13 14 14 14 13 12 13 12 11 12 12 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. -0. -3. -4. -6. -10. -12. -17. -21. -26. -30. -30. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.8 114.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072021 GUILLERMO 07/19/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.38 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 263.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.15 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.11 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072021 GUILLERMO 07/19/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##