* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP072021 07/19/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 35 34 31 27 23 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 35 34 31 27 23 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 37 34 32 30 26 23 20 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 15 16 15 11 10 12 9 15 19 23 28 28 34 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -2 0 0 1 5 0 1 0 -3 -2 -1 2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 301 297 307 323 336 339 307 319 284 261 278 291 297 282 262 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 25.9 25.9 25.4 25.0 23.7 24.0 24.4 24.1 23.9 23.9 23.8 24.3 24.2 24.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 124 124 118 114 101 104 108 105 102 102 101 107 105 108 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 -53.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 57 57 57 58 52 52 51 49 52 54 48 45 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 19 19 19 17 16 15 13 12 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -5 0 2 2 15 30 38 48 35 32 17 9 -16 -26 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 41 31 26 12 -6 -10 -8 14 -10 -1 -9 -8 -11 -28 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -12 -6 -5 -11 -18 -5 -13 -9 -2 1 0 7 4 9 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 773 843 930 1043 1164 1377 1606 1850 2098 2044 1794 1532 1259 994 739 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.0 19.1 19.1 19.0 19.0 18.9 18.6 18.4 18.2 18.1 18.1 18.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.1 117.5 118.9 120.3 121.7 124.5 127.4 130.1 132.8 135.4 137.8 140.3 142.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. -0. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -3. -6. -9. -12. -12. -13. -13. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -13. -17. -18. -23. -28. -34. -37. -42. -44. -45. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.8 116.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072021 GUILLERMO 07/19/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.39 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072021 GUILLERMO 07/19/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##