* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/19/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 60 52 46 41 34 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 60 52 46 41 34 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 61 53 47 43 35 30 25 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 8 10 12 25 38 42 39 38 36 35 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 2 1 -4 -9 -12 -2 0 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 175 227 247 262 267 288 300 300 308 304 287 271 283 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.0 25.2 25.1 25.3 25.1 25.1 25.6 26.0 26.2 26.0 26.4 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 116 115 117 115 115 121 125 127 125 130 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 49 48 48 44 44 42 44 46 48 50 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 12 12 10 9 7 6 5 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -16 -14 -5 -3 0 20 21 36 32 31 0 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -23 -28 -13 -41 -45 -35 -33 -18 -6 27 1 -40 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 3 6 5 2 3 3 5 6 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2143 2235 2237 2115 1993 1722 1453 1198 965 767 616 570 748 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.1 15.5 15.1 14.7 14.2 14.0 14.0 13.8 13.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.7 132.8 133.9 135.1 136.3 139.1 141.9 144.7 147.6 150.4 153.0 156.0 159.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 13 14 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -19. -20. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -6. -11. -14. -17. -19. -22. -24. -25. -24. -23. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -18. -24. -29. -36. -45. -56. -65. -70. -76. -81. -83. -81. -78. -75. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 16.3 131.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/19/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.08 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -30.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.02 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 521.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.32 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.49 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/19/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##