* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP072021 07/19/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 30 28 26 23 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 30 28 26 23 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 32 29 27 25 22 20 19 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 18 14 13 15 11 12 6 11 14 21 33 38 43 46 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 0 -3 -1 -3 -3 1 0 0 0 0 -3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 304 303 319 326 332 331 310 258 263 231 259 282 279 266 270 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.8 25.5 25.1 25.0 24.7 24.5 24.4 23.4 23.8 23.3 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 119 115 114 111 109 107 97 101 97 102 108 113 124 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.9 -54.5 -55.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 -0.1 -0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 58 58 58 58 58 55 53 54 55 58 53 48 43 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 18 18 18 17 15 14 13 12 10 7 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 0 -2 -1 2 20 35 48 44 33 29 15 6 -19 -18 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 20 27 -12 -24 26 11 -17 2 18 -2 -13 -1 -19 -10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -9 -18 -13 -4 -11 -2 -4 4 4 9 5 6 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 813 904 1007 1126 1251 1481 1716 1958 2160 1978 1686 1363 1009 635 261 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.0 18.7 18.6 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.3 18.2 18.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.1 118.5 119.9 121.3 122.7 125.6 128.5 131.2 133.5 136.0 138.8 141.9 145.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 11 12 14 15 17 17 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -18. -22. -27. -34. -40. -45. -48. -49. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.0 117.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072021 GUILLERMO 07/19/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.40 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072021 GUILLERMO 07/19/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##