* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/19/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 45 38 32 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 45 38 32 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 44 37 32 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 12 15 20 35 49 49 43 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 0 -4 -12 -12 -9 -1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 251 275 280 286 298 300 308 306 288 283 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 25.4 25.3 25.4 25.3 25.2 25.8 25.7 26.6 26.2 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 118 117 118 117 117 122 122 131 126 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 49 50 48 46 45 44 43 46 47 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 9 10 7 6 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -19 -3 -5 -3 13 20 28 36 36 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -30 -14 -43 -43 -50 -21 -15 5 10 5 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 3 7 1 2 4 5 2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2248 2228 2099 1974 1849 1567 1323 1111 877 728 617 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.7 15.0 14.5 14.1 13.6 13.4 13.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.8 134.1 135.3 136.6 137.8 140.8 143.5 146.0 149.3 152.0 154.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 14 13 14 15 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -9. -16. -22. -24. -26. -29. -30. -29. -29. -29. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -12. -12. -10. -8. -6. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -11. -12. -10. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -17. -23. -27. -34. -43. -54. -63. -69. -75. -78. -79. -77. -75. -72. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.1 132.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/19/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.22 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -36.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 399.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/19/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##