* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP072021 07/19/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 25 24 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 27 25 24 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 26 24 21 20 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 15 11 12 11 10 8 15 18 22 31 38 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 1 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 1 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 304 312 322 323 313 294 260 214 229 250 266 279 271 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.1 24.9 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.3 23.7 24.2 23.4 23.7 24.2 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 116 114 109 108 108 107 101 106 97 101 107 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -53.1 -53.4 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 56 56 56 55 52 54 51 50 49 49 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 16 16 14 12 12 10 10 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -5 0 5 14 46 40 55 42 43 26 15 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 23 -14 -2 -2 9 -5 4 30 17 9 -4 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -10 -17 -15 -7 -12 -8 0 -3 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 922 1043 1171 1293 1412 1677 1908 2148 1972 1689 1403 1090 752 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.2 19.1 18.7 18.5 18.3 18.1 18.1 18.3 18.3 18.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.0 120.5 122.0 123.6 125.1 128.1 130.7 133.3 136.1 138.8 141.5 144.5 147.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 15 14 13 12 13 13 13 13 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -3. -7. -11. -15. -15. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. -15. -17. -15. -14. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -14. -17. -21. -25. -32. -39. -46. -47. -47. -48. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.3 119.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072021 GUILLERMO 07/19/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.39 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072021 GUILLERMO 07/19/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##