* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/20/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 37 30 26 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 37 30 26 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 36 30 26 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 14 21 30 38 54 46 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -4 -10 -6 -14 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 273 285 291 293 298 307 312 305 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.3 25.1 25.3 25.9 26.3 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 120 118 115 117 124 128 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 49 49 46 46 47 48 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -6 -11 -7 4 19 20 38 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -38 -47 -50 -39 -28 13 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 3 5 5 0 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2222 2095 1970 1817 1667 1416 1202 1015 892 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.0 15.8 15.6 15.3 14.8 14.1 13.5 12.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.1 135.4 136.6 138.2 139.7 142.4 145.0 147.6 150.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 14 15 14 13 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -11. -18. -24. -27. -30. -32. -33. -32. -32. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -11. -12. -10. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -19. -23. -29. -37. -49. -56. -61. -66. -69. -71. -69. -67. -66. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.1 134.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/20/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.30 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -36.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 335.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/20/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##