* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP072021 07/20/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 27 25 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 27 25 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 24 23 21 20 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 12 9 8 7 8 10 14 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 311 322 326 304 288 279 228 224 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 24.7 24.3 24.5 24.4 24.4 24.1 24.2 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 112 108 109 108 108 104 106 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 56 57 54 55 54 52 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 12 12 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 6 10 18 31 47 48 50 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 -10 -3 -7 -11 11 -1 18 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -21 -12 -5 -8 -10 -4 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1087 1235 1361 1484 1612 1889 2158 2050 1750 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.3 19.1 18.9 18.7 18.4 18.0 17.8 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.1 122.8 124.4 125.9 127.3 130.4 133.2 135.4 138.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 14 14 14 12 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 11. 8. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -21. -22. -23. -24. -27. -27. -27. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.4 121.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072021 GUILLERMO 07/20/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072021 GUILLERMO 07/20/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##