* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP072021 07/20/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 27 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 27 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 25 23 22 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 12 11 9 8 9 13 18 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 0 0 -1 1 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 324 327 317 308 295 259 233 245 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 24.4 24.8 24.5 24.9 25.0 24.1 25.0 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 108 112 109 113 114 105 114 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 57 56 55 55 53 55 53 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 13 12 11 11 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 11 17 26 44 42 55 46 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 4 -5 -1 0 1 3 28 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -18 -9 -6 -9 -12 -6 -2 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1236 1357 1482 1615 1752 2012 2237 1950 1728 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 18.9 18.6 18.4 18.1 17.7 17.3 17.0 16.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.6 124.1 125.5 127.0 128.5 131.3 133.7 136.5 138.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 13 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 14. 13. 11. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -11. -16. -21. -23. -24. -26. -26. -28. -27. -26. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.1 122.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072021 GUILLERMO 07/20/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.38 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.96 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072021 GUILLERMO 07/20/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##