* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/21/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 27 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 27 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 25 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 50 50 48 44 41 32 30 33 35 38 46 45 47 49 53 53 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -14 -11 -9 -2 0 -1 2 0 6 5 5 4 5 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 306 306 310 311 306 295 279 278 280 271 275 281 279 268 261 255 256 SST (C) 25.5 26.0 25.7 25.7 26.0 26.4 26.6 26.2 25.7 25.6 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 119 124 120 120 123 126 128 124 119 119 124 126 126 126 125 126 127 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.9 -55.4 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 48 46 47 50 50 47 48 45 45 44 44 43 45 46 49 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 29 42 52 50 41 35 25 12 -3 -17 -25 -19 -15 -7 -12 -12 200 MB DIV 5 -8 4 20 18 7 -23 -45 -34 -27 -16 -5 -16 -2 25 38 15 700-850 TADV 2 4 4 4 3 5 4 4 4 6 6 1 5 4 6 2 6 LAND (KM) 1352 1237 1148 1072 1014 913 825 709 597 485 450 466 526 560 580 546 506 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.5 14.4 14.3 14.1 13.9 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.7 14.9 15.3 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 143.1 144.4 145.4 146.3 147.1 148.5 149.8 151.2 152.8 154.5 156.2 157.9 159.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 8 8 6 6 7 8 8 9 7 5 4 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 0 0 0 5 9 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 11 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 19. 19. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -21. -28. -34. -39. -43. -45. -45. -47. -52. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. -11. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -4. -10. -20. -29. -38. -44. -49. -53. -53. -53. -52. -54. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 143.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/21/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.47 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/21/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##