* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/21/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 47 46 40 38 32 27 26 31 32 39 48 45 47 49 54 51 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -10 -7 -1 0 0 2 3 2 5 2 1 4 4 1 0 0 5 SHEAR DIR 307 311 311 309 313 290 277 273 275 279 287 285 279 264 255 251 262 SST (C) 26.2 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.8 27.0 26.3 25.9 25.8 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.8 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 124 124 125 128 130 132 125 122 121 127 127 127 126 127 128 131 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -55.2 -55.0 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 47 50 53 51 49 48 48 48 47 45 43 44 48 52 55 53 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 38 51 49 43 44 30 28 8 -8 -25 -22 -26 -15 -14 -14 -13 200 MB DIV -14 -9 19 12 31 -4 -16 -36 -37 -24 -15 -4 -22 6 40 42 0 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 2 3 4 4 2 3 4 4 1 7 3 4 1 1 LAND (KM) 1262 1162 1095 1049 1006 924 834 724 607 531 506 545 580 608 606 562 551 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.3 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 144.3 145.5 146.4 147.1 147.8 149.0 150.2 151.6 153.2 154.9 156.8 158.5 159.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 8 7 7 5 6 7 8 8 9 8 5 4 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 1 5 13 13 1 0 0 1 1 2 3 7 14 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 19. 21. 21. 21. 20. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -17. -23. -28. -34. -38. -40. -41. -43. -48. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -19. -27. -37. -43. -48. -51. -51. -51. -50. -52. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 144.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/21/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.69 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/21/21 18 UTC ## ##