* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/22/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 25 23 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 47 40 33 28 23 24 26 29 31 39 39 43 42 45 44 42 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -2 1 2 3 3 1 4 4 3 2 6 3 2 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 309 309 305 305 298 273 263 274 277 280 282 281 278 282 285 294 292 SST (C) 26.0 26.1 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.0 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 128 130 131 132 128 126 125 131 131 129 131 131 133 134 133 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 48 50 51 50 47 49 47 47 45 47 46 49 52 57 61 63 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 50 51 45 42 33 19 16 4 -6 -25 -27 -36 -37 -44 -39 -31 200 MB DIV 0 15 30 39 21 -13 -32 -42 -35 -19 -6 -10 -6 -9 -12 -5 -20 700-850 TADV 4 3 1 3 5 3 4 4 4 5 3 5 4 1 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 1144 1060 1007 960 918 843 752 652 592 620 706 835 911 963 1023 1126 1233 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 13.8 13.5 13.3 13.2 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 145.7 146.8 147.7 148.5 149.2 150.5 151.9 153.6 155.4 157.4 159.5 161.5 163.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 7 7 6 7 9 9 10 10 9 7 6 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 3 9 15 11 2 0 0 3 4 5 13 20 28 25 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 771 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 22. 22. 22. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -14. -19. -24. -29. -32. -34. -34. -35. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -16. -24. -30. -34. -36. -38. -38. -37. -35. -35. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 145.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/22/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/22/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##