* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/22/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 26 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 26 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 26 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 42 37 30 25 26 26 28 30 36 43 43 45 43 47 50 46 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 2 2 1 2 2 5 4 2 5 3 2 0 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 310 308 301 288 272 270 268 272 269 278 285 279 280 292 298 310 320 SST (C) 26.1 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.0 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 125 128 130 132 132 128 127 125 130 130 129 131 131 134 134 135 134 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 50 51 48 48 48 47 47 48 48 47 48 51 52 55 55 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 43 40 37 34 18 11 6 0 -11 -24 -28 -35 -29 -31 -33 -37 200 MB DIV 7 8 20 12 -4 -21 -36 -34 -33 -19 0 -16 -8 2 -35 -50 -17 700-850 TADV 3 2 3 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 3 4 -1 0 -4 0 2 LAND (KM) 1028 952 899 860 831 758 663 593 582 648 766 831 884 968 1067 1200 1347 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 13.7 13.6 13.4 13.3 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.8 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 147.1 148.2 149.0 149.8 150.4 151.8 153.3 155.2 157.2 159.3 161.3 163.0 164.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 8 7 6 7 8 9 11 10 9 8 6 5 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 5 11 16 12 2 1 0 2 3 3 7 10 21 25 15 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 757 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 22. 22. 22. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -14. -20. -26. -31. -35. -37. -37. -39. -42. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -11. -17. -25. -31. -35. -38. -40. -39. -38. -36. -37. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 147.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/22/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.54 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/22/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##