* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/22/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 21 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 21 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 38 29 27 26 26 29 34 35 43 44 46 48 48 51 47 47 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 5 5 1 3 5 5 5 5 0 0 -4 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 305 297 282 277 274 267 273 265 272 278 274 284 288 289 296 306 320 SST (C) 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.9 26.4 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 130 129 124 120 122 128 129 130 133 134 136 135 136 137 139 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.4 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 50 49 48 49 49 48 48 47 48 48 49 52 55 55 54 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 37 36 38 37 14 4 0 -6 -19 -21 -26 -23 -26 -18 -23 -20 200 MB DIV 13 21 17 -1 -7 -25 -17 -26 -2 -10 -5 14 0 -7 -14 0 -15 700-850 TADV 3 5 5 4 3 4 6 7 8 5 5 1 -1 -2 -2 1 -1 LAND (KM) 929 853 807 767 727 622 550 514 578 710 742 795 874 954 1053 1145 1240 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.7 15.9 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 148.3 149.4 150.2 151.0 151.7 153.3 155.1 157.1 159.2 161.3 163.1 164.5 165.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 8 7 7 8 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 8 8 4 1 0 0 1 2 6 8 10 16 23 24 20 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 787 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 25. 26. 26. 26. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -13. -22. -29. -35. -40. -42. -43. -44. -49. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -16. -25. -32. -37. -39. -42. -41. -40. -39. -40. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 148.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/22/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.57 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/22/21 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING