* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092021 07/30/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 38 43 51 59 66 70 70 69 66 62 59 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 38 43 51 59 66 70 70 69 66 62 59 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 23 23 24 25 28 32 35 38 41 43 43 42 39 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 14 13 11 12 13 18 13 19 13 14 9 3 5 5 7 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 -3 -6 -4 -1 -5 -1 -6 -5 -3 0 4 7 7 SHEAR DIR 84 109 120 99 73 66 54 71 53 77 69 64 340 342 339 314 317 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 139 138 137 137 138 140 142 141 142 134 131 130 131 133 131 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 66 69 71 69 69 69 65 64 61 60 56 53 52 52 48 49 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 16 18 20 20 20 18 17 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 4 16 29 29 26 30 47 68 60 69 66 66 61 62 49 53 49 200 MB DIV 34 50 48 15 13 39 63 92 93 83 53 26 7 -6 -9 -26 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -4 -3 -2 -5 -1 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 1965 2027 2089 2127 2166 2252 2349 2431 2463 2255 2053 1860 1668 1483 1305 1138 986 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 5 7 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 8 12 7 9 4 2 2 11 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 30. 31. 31. 32. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 13. 18. 26. 34. 41. 45. 45. 44. 41. 37. 34. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 125.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092021 NINE 07/30/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.47 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.5% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 17.8% 5.6% 2.8% 1.3% 2.5% 5.3% 9.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 10.5% 5.6% 0.9% 0.4% 4.3% 5.2% 3.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 NINE 07/30/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##