* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP082021 07/31/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 52 56 61 65 70 71 70 65 62 60 54 50 44 39 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 52 56 61 65 70 71 70 65 62 60 54 50 44 39 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 49 51 53 56 61 64 63 58 54 50 46 40 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 5 11 15 14 11 12 12 17 10 8 4 3 1 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 5 3 -1 -6 -4 -4 -1 -1 -5 -3 0 -1 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 335 345 42 70 78 68 74 47 24 31 40 37 227 219 312 245 250 SST (C) 28.6 28.9 28.6 27.6 26.9 27.1 27.5 26.7 26.3 26.0 25.5 25.1 24.5 24.1 23.0 22.9 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 151 140 133 135 138 129 125 122 117 114 108 103 92 92 97 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 75 80 80 80 81 78 78 74 69 68 67 67 69 68 66 63 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 16 16 17 17 17 19 20 22 20 19 20 19 17 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -7 9 25 38 40 47 78 68 81 58 45 17 20 7 2 2 24 200 MB DIV 100 116 72 80 102 59 96 76 75 52 21 45 22 30 12 5 40 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -7 -7 -4 -9 -6 -7 -5 -11 -7 -7 3 -2 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1189 1207 1238 1274 1319 1421 1486 1545 1628 1653 1642 1692 1837 1976 2103 1933 1620 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.6 15.2 15.8 16.0 16.7 17.7 18.6 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.0 115.2 116.3 117.4 118.4 120.5 122.2 123.6 124.8 125.7 126.7 128.2 130.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 10 8 7 6 6 8 9 10 9 10 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 13 17 14 6 2 3 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 14. 12. 10. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 8. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 21. 25. 30. 31. 30. 25. 22. 20. 14. 10. 4. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.9 114.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082021 HILDA 07/31/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.66 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.62 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 26.5% 22.2% 21.4% 12.5% 19.2% 16.7% 0.0% Logistic: 15.1% 34.0% 21.1% 12.4% 1.6% 11.9% 9.4% 4.0% Bayesian: 11.1% 4.7% 2.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 13.3% 21.7% 15.4% 11.6% 4.7% 10.4% 8.7% 1.3% DTOPS: 6.0% 18.0% 10.0% 7.0% 4.0% 11.0% 19.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082021 HILDA 07/31/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##