* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP082021 07/31/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 58 62 67 69 70 69 65 61 57 52 47 41 35 31 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 58 62 67 69 70 69 65 61 57 52 47 41 35 31 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 51 52 55 58 61 63 61 56 50 45 40 34 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 12 14 15 12 10 11 13 14 7 9 7 3 6 2 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 -1 -5 -8 -4 -4 -4 -1 -3 1 0 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 344 46 74 84 74 80 77 47 35 39 5 344 255 266 36 346 255 SST (C) 28.9 28.5 27.4 26.9 26.8 27.2 27.1 26.5 25.9 25.5 25.1 24.6 23.9 22.9 23.2 22.8 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 150 138 132 132 135 133 128 121 117 113 110 102 90 93 91 98 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 700-500 MB RH 80 79 79 80 78 76 76 72 71 71 68 67 67 66 69 61 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 17 17 17 18 19 21 22 21 21 20 20 18 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 11 25 35 39 44 55 72 87 81 61 43 17 27 16 7 -3 16 200 MB DIV 105 78 83 105 89 71 66 75 60 54 46 63 84 45 41 21 26 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -7 -4 -7 -7 -6 -7 -8 -8 -12 -11 -5 -8 -3 -8 0 LAND (KM) 1210 1239 1281 1322 1368 1437 1490 1563 1636 1642 1666 1775 1992 2111 1997 1798 1487 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.4 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.9 17.7 18.4 19.1 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.2 116.4 117.6 118.5 119.4 121.4 122.7 124.1 125.7 126.7 127.7 129.6 132.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 9 10 9 7 8 7 6 8 12 12 8 7 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 17 13 5 2 2 5 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. 2. -0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 22. 24. 25. 24. 21. 16. 12. 7. 2. -4. -10. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.2 115.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082021 HILDA 07/31/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.65 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.51 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 38.6% 22.6% 21.1% 12.6% 19.8% 17.2% 0.0% Logistic: 34.9% 56.8% 34.2% 24.1% 11.9% 15.3% 4.7% 1.8% Bayesian: 10.2% 2.4% 1.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 19.8% 32.6% 19.5% 15.4% 8.2% 11.8% 7.4% 0.6% DTOPS: 6.0% 30.0% 16.0% 11.0% 8.0% 13.0% 9.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082021 HILDA 07/31/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##