* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092021 07/31/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 34 38 47 53 58 59 58 57 53 50 48 46 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 31 34 38 47 53 58 59 58 57 53 50 48 46 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 32 35 37 39 41 43 42 39 35 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 7 12 9 13 11 13 12 11 8 3 7 8 10 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -4 -8 -7 -3 -2 -5 -2 -4 -6 -1 -1 0 3 3 2 SHEAR DIR 129 131 98 91 97 73 107 88 87 70 79 23 277 244 263 259 265 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.9 27.5 27.8 27.3 26.4 25.9 25.4 25.6 25.3 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 136 137 138 139 142 138 141 136 127 122 118 120 116 122 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 4 3 3 4 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 67 67 65 64 65 63 61 57 59 57 56 50 49 42 37 33 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 15 16 18 17 17 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 16 24 27 51 62 76 61 72 68 69 78 118 75 78 48 51 200 MB DIV 28 7 6 27 45 54 83 82 81 46 13 16 1 -1 -18 -25 -27 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -3 -2 -3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 2057 2084 2112 2148 2184 2277 2380 2448 2297 2137 1988 1820 1639 1409 1154 946 790 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.2 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.8 127.1 127.4 127.9 128.3 129.6 131.3 132.8 134.2 135.7 137.1 138.6 140.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 4 5 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 10 11 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 6 6 7 12 21 6 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 30. 29. 29. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 8. 5. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 7. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 22. 28. 33. 34. 33. 32. 28. 25. 23. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 126.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092021 NINE 07/31/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.54 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.8% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 4.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.5% 4.7% 0.2% 0.1% 4.1% 4.1% 1.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 NINE 07/31/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##