* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP082021 07/31/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 68 72 75 80 81 78 77 70 68 62 57 50 43 37 30 V (KT) LAND 55 62 68 72 75 80 81 78 77 70 68 62 57 50 43 37 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 65 68 70 73 75 75 72 66 59 54 47 40 33 27 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 10 14 13 14 16 10 15 11 4 11 10 1 3 8 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -4 -5 -6 -5 -6 -2 0 -1 -3 -1 2 1 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 102 86 87 68 74 91 73 64 41 8 306 283 154 196 244 288 275 SST (C) 28.4 27.8 27.1 26.6 26.7 27.2 27.1 26.5 25.9 25.4 25.2 24.8 24.2 23.5 22.9 23.2 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 142 135 130 130 135 134 127 121 117 115 111 105 98 91 94 96 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.0 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 80 80 81 79 79 77 77 73 72 70 68 68 70 65 58 49 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 16 17 19 20 21 24 22 24 23 22 20 17 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 14 21 33 44 46 67 82 84 69 44 20 17 13 12 11 20 19 200 MB DIV 52 78 108 92 73 72 75 83 59 64 77 53 53 46 29 4 4 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -7 -8 -2 -4 -7 -5 -3 -9 3 -3 -4 -1 1 0 LAND (KM) 1223 1258 1300 1342 1385 1446 1506 1564 1608 1643 1723 1850 2014 2104 1861 1641 1477 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.6 18.4 19.0 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.2 117.1 118.0 119.0 119.9 121.4 122.9 124.2 125.2 126.6 128.4 130.4 132.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 7 9 10 10 10 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 7 3 1 2 4 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 10. 8. 10. 9. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 17. 21. 25. 26. 23. 22. 15. 13. 7. 2. -5. -12. -18. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.6 116.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082021 HILDA 07/31/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.38 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.47 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 6.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 5.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -5.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.7% 50.9% 29.7% 23.5% 14.0% 20.2% 15.4% 0.0% Logistic: 32.8% 50.3% 26.6% 18.5% 13.4% 9.6% 5.9% 2.1% Bayesian: 24.3% 2.5% 1.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 28.3% 34.5% 19.2% 14.3% 9.2% 10.0% 7.1% 0.7% DTOPS: 31.0% 43.0% 34.0% 26.0% 17.0% 29.0% 10.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082021 HILDA 07/31/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##