* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092021 07/31/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 32 39 46 53 58 60 58 57 54 51 50 48 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 32 39 46 53 58 60 58 57 54 51 50 48 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 30 33 36 38 41 42 42 39 35 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 11 8 7 14 7 13 8 8 0 4 4 6 10 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -6 -7 -4 -1 -2 -4 -2 -2 0 -1 2 5 6 2 3 SHEAR DIR 125 88 88 92 60 83 78 99 86 84 323 208 186 223 257 248 263 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.6 27.4 26.6 25.8 25.1 25.0 25.2 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 134 135 136 139 141 139 137 138 136 128 121 115 114 114 116 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 65 64 62 61 59 62 60 60 60 55 44 36 30 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 11 12 14 15 16 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 18 26 41 45 44 42 55 68 63 71 78 84 71 65 52 49 200 MB DIV -2 -11 9 29 45 34 86 58 41 12 5 8 -3 -12 -22 -36 -9 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -4 0 0 -4 -3 -1 -5 LAND (KM) 2120 2155 2190 2231 2272 2386 2479 2372 2204 2080 1992 1875 1710 1447 1125 906 789 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.1 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.2 12.6 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.1 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.4 127.7 128.1 128.6 129.1 130.7 132.4 133.7 135.2 136.3 137.1 138.1 139.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 6 8 7 7 7 4 5 6 10 13 12 8 5 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 5 5 5 8 16 9 5 7 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 29. 29. 29. 28. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 21. 28. 33. 35. 33. 32. 29. 26. 25. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 127.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092021 NINE 07/31/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 2.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.61 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.8% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 10.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 4.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.2% 2.7% 0.2% 0.2% 3.4% 3.7% 1.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 NINE 07/31/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##