* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP082021 07/31/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 69 72 74 76 77 76 73 68 62 56 51 44 36 32 27 V (KT) LAND 60 65 69 72 74 76 77 76 73 68 62 56 51 44 36 32 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 65 69 70 71 73 73 71 65 59 53 47 41 34 29 24 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 17 16 16 13 13 13 17 9 5 9 5 5 6 10 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -5 -7 -6 -3 -4 -2 -4 -2 -2 0 0 1 0 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 82 83 74 81 76 81 51 62 44 294 314 225 161 262 270 269 290 SST (C) 27.5 26.9 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.3 26.7 26.0 25.5 25.1 24.9 24.3 23.6 23.4 22.7 23.2 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 132 129 131 133 136 130 123 117 113 112 106 98 96 89 94 102 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 78 77 77 74 71 72 71 69 69 66 61 52 46 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 18 17 19 22 23 24 23 22 20 20 18 15 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 27 39 48 50 58 80 97 97 84 56 32 28 19 19 8 30 32 200 MB DIV 69 101 94 84 63 77 101 67 83 72 52 56 48 34 6 -5 1 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -8 -9 -9 -5 -7 -8 -8 -9 -5 -5 -2 -3 -3 2 0 LAND (KM) 1260 1308 1361 1394 1421 1484 1546 1621 1643 1689 1781 1931 2133 1976 1777 1570 1332 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.6 17.5 18.3 19.0 19.4 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.4 118.3 119.2 120.1 120.9 122.4 123.7 125.2 126.5 127.9 129.6 131.6 133.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 7 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 2 1 2 3 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 7. 7. 4. 3. -0. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 16. 13. 8. 2. -4. -9. -16. -24. -28. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.0 117.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082021 HILDA 07/31/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.30 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.26 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 27.9% 21.5% 20.7% 12.4% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.1% 19.4% 6.9% 3.8% 4.6% 1.8% 1.7% 0.7% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.1% 15.9% 9.5% 8.2% 5.7% 6.4% 0.6% 0.2% DTOPS: 32.0% 47.0% 37.0% 24.0% 22.0% 19.0% 5.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082021 HILDA 07/31/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##