* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092021 07/31/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 41 48 53 56 56 54 52 49 47 46 44 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 41 48 53 56 56 54 52 49 47 46 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 35 37 39 41 41 39 34 30 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 10 10 14 11 16 18 16 11 9 8 7 6 9 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -6 -5 -2 0 -3 -6 -5 -5 -5 0 4 7 4 4 4 SHEAR DIR 77 75 88 52 54 85 69 75 69 91 201 251 248 251 268 295 286 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.0 26.0 25.3 25.0 25.2 25.8 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 136 138 139 140 141 138 139 139 132 123 116 114 115 121 118 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 65 63 63 62 61 62 58 59 60 59 56 53 46 37 34 32 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 11 13 14 15 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 21 27 29 32 47 46 60 69 74 73 76 74 73 38 32 25 200 MB DIV -8 4 27 28 26 51 77 50 33 25 2 -13 -8 -43 -47 -34 -7 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 1 0 -2 -3 -1 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 2237 2272 2308 2358 2408 2507 2435 2292 2153 2026 1900 1736 1515 1271 1019 811 644 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.9 13.5 14.3 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.2 128.6 129.0 129.7 130.3 131.9 133.4 134.7 136.0 137.1 138.1 139.4 141.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 6 7 8 7 7 6 6 7 9 10 12 11 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 6 7 10 10 6 7 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 29. 29. 29. 28. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 12. 9. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 16. 23. 28. 31. 31. 29. 27. 24. 22. 21. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 128.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092021 NINE 07/31/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.44 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.0% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 4.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 1.0% 5.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 4.5% 3.5% 0.2% 0.2% 3.2% 3.6% 1.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 NINE 07/31/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##