* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP082021 08/01/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 84 86 88 87 83 76 71 64 56 47 37 27 21 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 75 81 84 86 88 87 83 76 71 64 56 47 37 27 21 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 81 83 84 84 84 80 74 65 57 51 44 38 32 27 23 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 15 14 13 14 17 22 13 5 4 3 7 13 17 14 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -4 -5 -4 -4 -5 -5 -3 -2 -3 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 74 77 71 61 77 69 65 61 97 342 334 303 278 299 308 288 260 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.8 27.1 27.3 26.9 26.5 25.6 25.1 25.0 24.2 23.7 22.5 22.5 22.7 23.1 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 131 134 136 131 128 119 113 112 104 100 87 86 89 94 101 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 79 76 76 75 75 75 70 72 73 68 66 66 65 69 71 67 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 17 16 18 19 21 21 22 21 19 16 13 10 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 47 48 52 63 88 85 78 71 65 54 54 46 37 22 19 19 200 MB DIV 111 86 72 71 91 106 110 56 55 50 68 56 63 49 17 7 25 700-850 TADV -3 -10 -13 -10 -4 -2 -3 -9 -5 -11 -8 -10 -15 -13 5 4 5 LAND (KM) 1303 1353 1394 1420 1450 1521 1566 1609 1665 1737 1836 1972 2090 1903 1748 1535 1279 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.7 16.3 17.3 18.2 18.9 19.5 20.1 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.3 119.3 120.2 121.0 121.7 123.2 124.3 125.8 127.5 129.0 130.6 132.5 134.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 9 9 8 9 11 10 8 9 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 2 3 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. -25. -29. -33. -36. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -4. -7. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 11. 13. 12. 8. 1. -4. -11. -19. -28. -38. -48. -54. -59. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 14.2 118.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082021 HILDA 08/01/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.16 1.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.62 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.25 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.7% 24.6% 20.4% 19.4% 11.8% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 22.1% 30.7% 13.7% 8.8% 12.2% 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 3.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.8% 18.7% 11.5% 9.5% 8.1% 5.8% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 42.0% 37.0% 31.0% 23.0% 19.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082021 HILDA 08/01/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##