* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092021 08/01/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 36 41 46 52 58 60 60 58 53 49 45 41 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 36 41 46 52 58 60 60 58 53 49 45 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 37 39 42 44 43 40 36 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 11 14 18 16 20 16 16 5 3 4 5 8 11 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -5 -3 -2 -3 -3 -5 -3 -4 -3 -1 2 4 1 4 2 SHEAR DIR 82 86 52 55 71 54 73 77 79 51 342 283 255 281 289 293 284 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.4 27.5 27.5 26.6 25.6 24.9 24.5 25.0 25.1 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 136 138 140 139 136 137 137 129 118 112 108 113 113 114 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 64 63 63 61 61 60 59 62 62 60 63 61 58 53 45 39 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 12 12 13 15 15 16 17 17 18 19 19 18 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 33 59 52 53 61 56 53 56 54 52 50 66 69 82 90 94 60 200 MB DIV 36 39 43 33 52 61 53 63 60 56 50 56 59 11 -4 -19 -17 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -3 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 -2 -2 -3 -4 -4 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 2182 2225 2269 2318 2368 2475 2449 2331 2183 2052 1918 1759 1548 1327 1098 912 770 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.7 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.7 14.3 15.0 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.5 128.1 128.7 129.4 130.0 131.7 133.1 134.1 135.4 136.5 137.6 138.9 140.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 7 8 10 10 10 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 5 5 6 10 12 6 5 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 776 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 29. 28. 27. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 10. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 6. 5. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 21. 27. 33. 35. 35. 33. 28. 24. 20. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 127.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092021 NINE 08/01/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.32 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 5.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 3.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.9% 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 3.7% 3.7% 1.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 22.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 NINE 08/01/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##