* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092021 08/01/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 39 43 49 52 53 49 48 41 39 39 37 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 39 43 49 52 53 49 48 41 39 39 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 32 34 36 37 36 33 29 26 24 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 15 18 14 21 22 19 6 5 8 6 6 6 11 13 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -2 -1 0 -4 -5 -5 -4 -2 1 2 6 5 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 72 48 56 76 70 65 71 79 95 330 310 286 277 272 283 286 288 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.3 27.6 27.1 26.2 25.6 25.1 24.9 25.4 25.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 137 139 140 140 136 139 133 124 119 114 110 116 118 127 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 65 64 62 62 62 58 61 59 61 60 63 56 48 46 45 43 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 14 13 14 15 16 17 16 16 13 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 69 70 68 67 79 67 57 55 62 68 82 109 75 45 32 5 -6 200 MB DIV 36 30 53 64 69 76 66 70 28 21 13 16 20 -10 3 -21 -22 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -2 -1 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 2174 2221 2270 2327 2386 2482 2439 2297 2107 1976 1859 1702 1468 1305 1209 1014 729 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.8 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.9 13.6 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.3 128.1 128.8 129.6 130.3 131.9 133.2 134.4 136.0 137.1 138.1 139.5 141.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 9 9 6 7 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 5 6 7 11 11 5 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 768 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 26. 28. 29. 28. 27. 26. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -5. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 4. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 18. 24. 27. 28. 24. 23. 16. 14. 14. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 127.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092021 NINE 08/01/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.27 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.3% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 9.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.3% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 3.3% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 NINE 08/01/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##