* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP082021 08/01/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 76 76 76 73 68 66 60 54 48 42 36 31 27 23 18 V (KT) LAND 75 75 76 76 76 73 68 66 60 54 48 42 36 31 27 23 18 V (KT) LGEM 75 75 75 75 75 72 66 59 51 45 38 34 29 26 24 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 17 19 19 22 18 10 9 3 7 5 7 13 16 16 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -2 -3 -2 -1 -3 1 0 0 -1 -3 0 -4 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 65 61 76 81 70 65 60 61 30 282 279 205 234 258 268 277 272 SST (C) 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.3 26.8 26.4 25.3 24.8 23.6 24.0 22.9 22.7 22.7 23.1 23.5 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 134 137 135 130 126 116 111 99 103 91 89 88 92 96 100 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.1 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 4 700-500 MB RH 74 75 73 72 74 72 73 71 70 70 71 69 66 58 51 41 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 19 20 20 21 20 21 18 17 15 13 12 12 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 44 53 52 59 66 76 61 46 19 14 7 -2 0 3 0 -10 -16 200 MB DIV 67 65 83 107 122 105 55 52 42 37 50 -4 6 0 -8 -4 -6 700-850 TADV -13 -8 -2 -2 -1 -1 -5 -8 -6 -9 -18 0 1 3 3 2 4 LAND (KM) 1388 1408 1432 1456 1483 1515 1528 1544 1592 1715 1903 2068 1965 1767 1601 1435 1275 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.5 16.2 17.1 18.1 19.2 19.9 20.2 20.5 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.8 120.5 121.2 121.9 122.5 123.6 124.5 125.8 127.5 129.5 131.8 134.0 136.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 9 10 11 10 10 9 8 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 4 7 8 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -23. -27. -31. -35. -38. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -9. -15. -21. -27. -33. -39. -44. -48. -52. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 14.5 119.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082021 HILDA 08/01/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.16 1.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.63 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.12 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 226.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 18.0% 14.9% 13.3% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 6.9% 5.2% 4.5% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 16.0% 13.0% 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082021 HILDA 08/01/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##