* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092021 08/01/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 29 32 38 44 48 51 48 44 41 36 34 32 29 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 29 32 38 44 48 51 48 44 41 36 34 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 27 29 31 33 34 33 30 27 24 22 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 15 11 10 14 15 12 4 7 7 5 12 12 19 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 0 0 0 -4 -2 -1 0 0 1 3 6 -2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 63 81 91 87 73 88 83 95 313 293 292 278 289 268 283 286 295 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.2 27.2 26.6 25.9 24.9 24.4 24.2 24.7 24.9 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 135 137 138 138 140 134 135 128 121 111 106 104 109 111 113 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 63 62 59 62 63 61 62 59 58 49 43 40 39 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 11 12 13 15 14 16 15 13 13 12 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 83 77 74 83 82 99 72 60 67 98 118 75 56 41 42 14 -11 200 MB DIV 29 44 38 67 79 73 84 64 29 34 5 5 1 -4 -10 0 -13 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -4 3 3 3 3 LAND (KM) 2080 2125 2171 2235 2291 2362 2412 2271 2114 1984 1865 1706 1519 1335 1148 996 871 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.1 127.8 128.5 129.4 130.2 131.6 133.0 134.2 135.6 136.7 137.7 139.1 140.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 5 6 8 8 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 6 8 17 19 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 772 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 27. 26. 25. 24. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 19. 23. 26. 23. 20. 16. 11. 9. 7. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 127.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092021 NINE 08/01/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.40 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.4% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.0% 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% 3.8% 3.7% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 NINE 08/01/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##