* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP082021 08/01/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 74 73 73 69 65 61 56 52 45 38 31 26 20 17 N/A V (KT) LAND 75 75 74 73 73 69 65 61 56 52 45 38 31 26 20 17 N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 75 74 74 72 68 62 54 48 42 37 31 27 24 21 18 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 21 23 20 23 18 7 9 8 9 9 7 13 11 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -3 -4 -2 -2 -4 0 0 -1 -2 0 -1 3 4 7 4 SHEAR DIR 64 81 79 74 63 71 52 39 11 276 256 213 259 245 250 239 231 SST (C) 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.1 25.0 24.8 23.6 23.8 22.8 23.0 22.7 23.1 23.6 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 135 137 133 130 124 112 111 99 101 90 91 89 93 97 99 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 75 73 72 74 72 70 72 71 69 71 68 67 59 53 42 33 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 20 21 22 21 19 18 18 15 13 11 10 8 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 56 59 62 71 79 71 60 37 20 16 8 32 8 26 10 7 -17 200 MB DIV 68 83 114 127 119 74 61 68 27 32 13 6 0 -3 -11 -17 -1 700-850 TADV -6 -1 -1 0 -2 -3 -4 -6 -13 -10 -6 1 2 2 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 1406 1432 1459 1473 1490 1501 1517 1534 1594 1733 1943 2101 1954 1767 1572 1400 1234 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.4 17.4 18.5 19.3 19.9 20.3 20.5 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.4 121.0 121.6 122.2 122.8 123.6 124.6 126.1 127.6 129.7 132.3 134.5 136.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 6 6 8 8 10 11 11 9 8 9 9 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 5 8 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -20. -23. -27. -31. -35. -38. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -8. -6. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -9. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -10. -14. -19. -23. -30. -37. -44. -49. -55. -58. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 14.7 120.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082021 HILDA 08/01/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.17 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.70 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 225.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 5.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 4.0% 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082021 HILDA 08/01/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##