* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092021 08/01/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 33 37 43 47 53 55 51 47 44 40 38 37 35 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 33 37 43 47 53 55 51 47 44 40 38 37 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 35 33 30 27 24 22 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 12 12 13 12 14 4 4 5 6 8 11 7 7 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 73 90 83 60 61 81 81 71 281 254 232 223 238 245 272 258 256 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.0 26.9 26.2 25.3 24.5 24.1 24.3 24.7 24.9 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 136 138 138 138 137 132 131 124 115 107 103 105 109 111 113 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 61 56 59 61 61 59 59 52 50 44 41 38 34 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 12 12 13 13 14 16 14 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 77 82 80 91 91 59 58 71 124 76 66 57 52 23 14 0 200 MB DIV 35 27 48 52 60 70 78 69 33 20 -2 30 35 -3 -11 -15 0 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -3 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 2097 2148 2200 2249 2295 2361 2354 2217 2074 1934 1778 1622 1446 1278 1101 949 819 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 6 8 10 24 8 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 26. 27. 25. 24. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 9. 7. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 5. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 18. 23. 28. 30. 26. 22. 19. 15. 13. 12. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 127.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092021 NINE 08/01/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.33 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.2% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 10.4% 3.6% 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 7.6% 4.8% 0.4% 0.3% 3.9% 3.8% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 NINE 08/01/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##