* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP082021 08/02/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 66 64 63 58 55 50 48 43 37 31 26 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 68 66 64 63 58 55 50 48 43 37 31 26 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 68 67 65 63 58 51 45 40 35 30 25 22 18 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 21 21 22 19 10 11 4 6 6 7 9 14 16 23 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -5 -3 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 4 2 7 6 6 SHEAR DIR 68 67 59 56 63 59 29 349 288 258 241 243 256 266 252 248 255 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.5 25.3 24.7 23.9 23.8 23.3 22.5 22.6 22.8 23.2 23.7 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 135 132 130 127 115 110 102 100 95 86 88 90 94 98 99 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.3 -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 70 71 70 69 72 73 72 73 70 66 63 53 44 33 26 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 21 23 21 19 17 18 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 61 65 70 81 76 63 45 15 3 0 0 5 8 21 1 -11 -29 200 MB DIV 91 97 106 111 117 69 72 52 23 17 11 7 -2 -9 -14 -1 -20 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -4 -4 -3 -6 -3 -10 -6 -5 1 1 2 2 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1447 1472 1499 1506 1515 1518 1515 1543 1646 1801 1963 2086 1903 1696 1485 1304 1164 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.8 16.1 17.0 18.1 19.1 19.9 20.4 20.8 20.9 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.3 122.0 122.6 123.1 123.5 124.3 125.4 126.8 128.7 130.8 132.8 134.8 136.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 4 7 8 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. -24. -28. -32. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -5. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -12. -15. -20. -22. -27. -33. -39. -44. -50. -55. -60. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 14.9 121.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082021 HILDA 08/02/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.21 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 4.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082021 HILDA 08/02/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##