* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102021 08/02/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 28 25 22 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 28 25 22 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 31 29 26 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 15 14 15 24 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 2 5 1 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 30 29 35 43 41 49 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.5 27.8 28.0 27.2 26.2 25.1 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 140 143 144 136 125 113 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 73 73 71 70 70 66 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 11 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 27 25 21 9 0 -20 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 54 69 65 36 8 8 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -8 -9 -9 -17 -24 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 661 672 707 750 770 816 935 1032 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.9 18.3 18.8 19.2 20.1 20.6 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.4 113.6 114.7 115.7 116.7 118.4 120.2 121.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 4 6 7 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 22. 21. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -8. -11. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -13. -14. -16. -16. -16. -16. -17. -16. -18. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.4 112.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102021 TEN 08/02/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.25 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.11 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 12.3% 8.0% 6.3% 0.0% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 4.2% 2.7% 2.1% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102021 TEN 08/02/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##