* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP082021 08/02/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 68 66 64 61 56 52 49 44 38 30 24 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 69 68 66 64 61 56 52 49 44 38 30 24 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 68 67 65 62 57 50 44 39 35 30 25 21 18 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 20 22 23 23 13 6 8 8 9 8 11 14 16 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -5 -2 -4 -2 0 -2 -2 0 2 1 3 2 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 73 65 61 61 64 41 352 5 280 253 255 266 259 266 247 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.7 25.7 24.8 24.5 23.2 23.8 23.0 22.3 22.4 22.7 23.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 133 130 129 119 110 107 94 100 92 84 85 89 95 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 -52.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 70 69 69 74 70 68 69 67 66 59 54 45 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 21 21 21 19 19 19 18 16 13 12 9 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 65 77 66 62 54 31 11 13 9 27 18 21 12 14 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 80 92 105 108 85 52 57 49 32 9 6 7 -14 -13 -7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -3 -5 -6 -7 -9 -7 -9 -1 0 2 0 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1464 1480 1498 1495 1496 1491 1481 1527 1659 1816 1964 2060 1885 1681 1450 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.8 18.9 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.3 21.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.9 122.4 122.9 123.4 123.8 124.7 125.8 127.3 129.2 131.2 133.2 135.1 136.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 8 6 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -18. -22. -27. -31. -34. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -10. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -18. -21. -26. -32. -40. -46. -53. -57. -59. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.2 121.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082021 HILDA 08/02/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.21 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 254.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082021 HILDA 08/02/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##