* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092021 08/02/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 43 48 52 50 48 44 38 35 33 31 29 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 43 48 52 50 48 44 38 35 33 31 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 28 30 31 32 32 31 27 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 8 12 15 6 5 7 9 11 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 -3 -1 -5 0 1 5 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 84 73 68 79 64 87 75 5 279 227 227 241 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.2 25.0 24.3 23.7 22.8 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 135 134 131 128 124 112 105 99 89 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 56 58 61 64 64 66 68 65 61 53 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 11 12 14 15 15 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 82 89 94 83 74 79 84 82 56 66 60 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 46 65 52 54 81 50 48 26 10 -5 1 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -3 -1 -3 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2224 2245 2264 2277 2291 2292 2281 2252 2201 2142 1968 1808 1663 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 8 9 10 12 11 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 23. 22. 20. 19. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 18. 23. 27. 25. 23. 19. 13. 10. 8. 6. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 129.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092021 NINE 08/02/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.57 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.9% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 12.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 3.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.4% 5.3% 0.1% 0.1% 4.3% 4.2% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 NINE 08/02/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##