* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP082021 08/02/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 70 69 67 63 57 54 47 39 33 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 71 70 69 67 63 57 54 47 39 33 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 70 69 67 64 57 50 44 38 33 29 25 21 19 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 19 23 22 21 9 5 2 14 11 15 14 21 19 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 -1 -2 3 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 1 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 58 56 59 55 55 64 5 288 297 285 266 257 266 257 255 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.3 25.3 24.7 24.4 23.4 23.5 22.9 22.4 22.5 23.0 23.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 128 127 125 115 109 106 96 97 91 86 87 92 101 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 67 72 71 70 69 68 65 66 64 59 52 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 19 21 20 20 19 19 17 14 14 12 12 11 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 71 65 57 46 39 19 14 2 11 22 16 19 15 16 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 76 96 95 68 46 41 54 51 56 25 4 18 0 -11 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -6 -4 -6 -5 -5 -21 -10 -13 -4 -2 -1 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1500 1502 1506 1498 1492 1486 1512 1586 1715 1866 1998 2007 1791 1556 1324 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.5 17.0 18.1 19.1 19.9 20.5 20.9 21.0 21.1 21.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.4 122.9 123.3 123.7 124.0 125.0 126.4 128.0 129.9 131.8 133.6 135.6 137.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -13. -16. -20. -24. -28. -32. -35. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -5. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -1. -3. -7. -13. -16. -23. -31. -37. -43. -49. -54. -59. -62. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.2 122.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082021 HILDA 08/02/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.17 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082021 HILDA 08/02/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##