* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092021 08/02/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 34 38 44 51 52 53 51 48 44 39 34 31 27 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 34 38 44 51 52 53 51 48 44 39 34 31 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 33 33 32 29 26 22 18 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 7 12 16 10 6 10 12 14 15 13 12 7 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -1 -5 -1 -4 -2 -4 -2 0 2 1 -1 0 3 2 SHEAR DIR 84 96 103 72 65 86 57 30 359 17 17 358 346 324 352 342 357 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.5 25.4 24.4 23.0 22.2 22.0 22.2 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 132 133 133 133 132 132 131 127 116 106 91 82 80 81 86 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 60 56 55 58 61 63 66 67 69 71 75 69 62 53 45 37 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 12 13 13 13 14 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 90 72 57 51 53 54 70 71 38 12 -16 -18 -12 -7 -12 -26 200 MB DIV 51 92 88 79 73 65 56 49 48 30 12 7 0 -13 -7 -6 -20 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 1 4 2 5 3 1 0 LAND (KM) 2259 2301 2346 2377 2408 2388 2364 2340 2332 2289 2193 2113 2070 2025 1985 1874 1768 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.7 14.0 14.1 14.5 15.1 16.0 17.3 18.9 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.1 130.9 131.6 132.1 132.6 133.1 133.3 133.4 133.3 133.2 133.1 133.3 133.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 2 1 2 4 6 7 8 8 7 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 12 17 17 11 9 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 24. 22. 19. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 13. 19. 26. 27. 28. 26. 23. 19. 14. 9. 6. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 130.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092021 NINE 08/02/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.63 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.4% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 12.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.0% 5.5% 0.1% 0.0% 4.5% 4.1% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 NINE 08/02/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##