* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP082021 08/02/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 68 65 64 59 54 50 42 36 28 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 69 68 65 64 59 54 50 42 36 28 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 69 67 65 62 55 48 42 36 32 27 24 21 17 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 21 21 20 18 6 6 7 13 15 19 19 21 18 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -1 -5 1 -2 -1 -2 0 0 0 -1 7 8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 60 65 57 55 49 46 5 314 320 285 261 270 274 260 243 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.0 24.5 24.1 23.5 23.1 22.2 22.4 22.9 23.6 23.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 128 127 125 123 112 107 103 98 94 84 86 91 98 101 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 68 70 73 70 68 69 64 63 62 60 54 44 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 20 20 20 19 17 15 14 11 13 12 11 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 65 56 42 42 31 14 12 5 48 47 56 50 45 30 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 94 93 81 49 37 39 51 39 15 8 16 1 -8 -14 -16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -6 -8 -6 -6 -4 -10 -11 -11 -5 0 0 -5 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1483 1475 1469 1470 1474 1476 1505 1590 1725 1902 2040 1834 1615 1407 1210 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.1 16.5 17.0 17.4 18.4 19.4 20.1 20.8 21.3 21.6 21.6 21.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.0 123.3 123.7 124.1 125.2 126.6 128.2 130.2 132.5 135.0 137.3 139.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -21. -25. -29. -32. -36. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -0. -1. -3. -7. -8. -12. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -6. -11. -16. -20. -28. -34. -42. -46. -52. -57. -62. -64. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.6 122.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082021 HILDA 08/02/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.15 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 270.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082021 HILDA 08/02/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##