* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092021 08/02/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 40 48 54 56 57 54 51 45 40 34 27 21 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 40 48 54 56 57 54 51 45 40 34 27 21 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 34 35 35 34 31 27 23 19 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 7 11 14 10 10 10 11 10 13 16 18 12 7 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -6 -5 -1 -5 -4 -3 -1 1 1 -3 1 1 4 3 SHEAR DIR 75 97 79 67 82 66 46 53 30 18 345 337 338 349 13 40 59 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.4 25.0 24.3 23.3 22.3 22.1 22.1 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 133 135 134 133 133 132 130 125 112 104 95 83 79 78 81 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 57 57 59 61 62 64 65 69 67 71 71 70 64 56 47 40 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 13 15 15 14 15 14 13 12 11 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 80 57 41 47 50 53 51 64 45 48 14 -12 -28 -29 -14 -25 -47 200 MB DIV 96 85 86 61 63 53 47 30 0 11 11 17 0 -23 -6 -21 -21 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 -3 -1 0 -6 3 3 1 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 2318 2346 2385 2416 2391 2347 2313 2292 2263 2229 2193 2147 2102 2067 2021 2024 1989 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.4 15.0 15.8 16.9 18.3 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.9 131.6 132.2 132.7 133.1 133.5 133.8 133.9 134.0 134.1 134.2 134.4 134.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 5 5 3 2 2 2 4 5 7 7 8 6 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 9 12 18 17 11 8 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 24. 21. 18. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 5. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 23. 29. 31. 32. 29. 26. 20. 15. 9. 2. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 130.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092021 NINE 08/02/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.55 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.85 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.6% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 9.1% 7.0% 1.1% 2.3% 0.3% 0.3% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 9.0% 7.4% 0.4% 0.8% 4.5% 4.1% 1.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 NINE 08/02/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##