* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP082021 08/03/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 61 58 56 52 48 43 38 33 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 63 61 58 56 52 48 43 38 33 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 63 60 57 53 47 42 37 33 28 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 20 15 10 3 5 11 7 11 14 26 29 23 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 -1 -1 2 -4 -3 0 0 0 0 -2 5 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 53 48 45 53 54 27 246 286 283 288 274 275 266 264 256 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.4 26.3 25.8 25.4 24.8 24.5 23.4 23.3 22.6 22.1 22.5 23.0 23.7 23.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 125 120 116 110 107 96 95 88 83 88 92 96 95 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 67 70 71 72 71 69 64 59 57 56 57 53 50 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 20 20 20 19 18 17 15 14 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 46 32 31 17 5 -2 -7 19 32 27 30 36 27 9 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 74 68 34 29 22 46 28 28 33 20 20 0 8 5 -4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -8 -7 -6 -5 -5 -2 -8 -1 -8 -6 -8 -5 -2 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1468 1471 1477 1486 1481 1496 1543 1617 1760 1870 2013 1798 1513 1370 1338 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.9 19.8 20.8 21.7 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.0 123.5 123.9 124.4 124.8 126.0 127.4 129.0 131.1 133.1 135.2 137.7 140.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 10 10 10 11 12 10 4 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -22. -26. -29. -33. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -17. -22. -27. -32. -39. -46. -53. -58. -62. -65. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.2 123.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082021 HILDA 08/03/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 238.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082021 HILDA 08/03/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##