* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP082021 08/03/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 52 49 47 43 39 34 30 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 55 52 49 47 43 39 34 30 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 56 52 48 45 39 35 31 27 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 19 16 8 2 5 9 8 9 13 22 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -3 -2 1 0 -3 0 0 1 2 -2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 49 48 51 65 25 302 296 305 277 270 263 267 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.1 25.7 25.2 25.0 24.5 24.0 23.6 22.8 22.1 21.9 22.7 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 123 119 114 112 107 102 98 90 83 81 89 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 71 70 72 70 70 69 63 61 58 58 56 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 20 20 19 18 16 15 12 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 38 34 21 12 3 -6 0 25 16 17 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 34 32 37 55 37 43 5 13 14 16 -6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -6 -4 -2 -1 -7 -6 -3 -7 -5 -5 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1481 1484 1486 1482 1482 1506 1571 1683 1815 1910 1950 1726 1482 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.2 18.6 19.5 20.4 21.4 22.0 22.5 22.8 22.8 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.7 124.1 124.5 125.0 125.5 126.7 128.2 130.1 132.1 134.2 136.3 138.5 140.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -23. -26. -29. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -13. -14. -16. -16. -14. -13. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -11. -13. -17. -21. -26. -30. -37. -42. -50. -55. -58. -59. -61. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.8 123.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082021 HILDA 08/03/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.17 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082021 HILDA 08/03/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##