* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092021 08/03/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 47 53 54 55 54 52 48 44 39 34 29 25 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 41 47 53 54 55 54 52 48 44 39 34 29 25 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 36 38 40 40 39 37 34 30 25 21 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 13 12 11 12 5 4 7 8 10 10 13 13 10 5 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -8 -4 -1 -1 -5 -1 -3 -3 0 0 1 4 2 5 4 6 SHEAR DIR 61 63 82 78 71 67 56 344 13 352 344 334 345 353 331 350 316 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 25.9 25.1 24.4 23.3 22.9 22.9 22.9 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 135 134 133 131 130 129 127 120 112 105 93 89 88 88 89 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 60 61 62 62 64 64 67 64 66 64 64 63 59 54 49 43 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 12 14 15 13 14 13 13 12 11 10 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 47 38 44 46 53 48 61 52 55 31 19 -2 -11 -7 -1 -8 -18 200 MB DIV 82 66 49 35 38 45 29 6 13 4 11 0 -4 -1 -4 -5 -22 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 2 3 1 3 -1 LAND (KM) 2439 2385 2333 2289 2265 2213 2169 2125 2045 1964 1883 1803 1738 1693 1634 1584 1521 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.7 16.4 17.2 18.2 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.6 133.3 133.7 134.1 134.3 134.7 135.0 135.3 135.9 136.5 137.1 137.7 138.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 4 3 2 3 2 3 4 5 5 7 6 5 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 17 10 7 5 5 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 21. 19. 17. 14. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 17. 23. 24. 25. 24. 22. 18. 14. 9. 4. -1. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 132.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092021 NINE 08/03/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.46 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.85 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 17.4% 14.2% 12.4% 0.0% 13.3% 12.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 3.8% 2.1% 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 3.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 7.1% 5.4% 4.3% 0.2% 4.5% 4.2% 1.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 NINE 08/03/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##