* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP082021 08/03/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 50 46 43 39 34 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 55 50 46 43 39 34 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 57 53 49 45 39 34 29 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 18 15 10 11 2 12 6 10 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -3 -1 0 -1 -2 0 0 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 46 56 70 53 55 344 343 306 334 280 298 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.6 25.1 24.8 24.6 24.5 23.4 23.5 22.5 21.9 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 118 113 110 108 107 96 98 87 81 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 70 70 69 71 68 67 63 61 59 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 19 19 17 16 13 11 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 31 17 9 -9 -14 -25 -10 3 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 31 31 19 19 32 39 21 7 19 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -6 -4 -3 -1 -12 -1 -8 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1498 1491 1477 1481 1489 1544 1617 1770 1861 1981 1835 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.9 20.8 21.5 22.2 22.5 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.3 124.7 125.1 125.7 126.2 127.5 129.0 131.1 133.1 135.2 137.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -23. -26. -29. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -11. -14. -17. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -17. -21. -26. -34. -40. -45. -51. -53. -55. -56. -57. -58. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.3 124.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082021 HILDA 08/03/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.13 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082021 HILDA 08/03/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##