* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP082021 08/03/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 50 47 45 40 33 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 53 50 47 45 40 33 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 52 49 46 43 38 33 28 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 15 7 6 4 11 12 6 10 16 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 0 0 -2 -2 1 1 0 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 57 72 57 44 347 279 335 294 282 265 276 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.0 24.7 24.6 24.6 23.9 23.4 22.7 21.8 21.9 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 112 109 107 108 101 96 89 80 81 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 70 70 69 69 68 64 63 61 57 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 18 17 16 15 13 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 24 7 -1 -3 -13 -21 9 -2 -8 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 29 18 36 48 38 21 10 12 7 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -2 -3 0 -3 -10 -1 -12 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1506 1503 1504 1516 1531 1604 1721 1849 1930 1890 1659 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.1 19.5 20.3 21.2 21.9 22.6 22.9 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.8 125.4 125.9 126.5 127.0 128.5 130.4 132.5 134.6 136.9 139.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 9 10 10 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. -23. -27. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -14. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -10. -15. -22. -28. -34. -39. -43. -45. -47. -50. -52. -54. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.7 124.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082021 HILDA 08/03/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.14 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082021 HILDA 08/03/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##