* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP082021 08/04/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 35 32 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 35 32 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 40 36 32 30 25 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 6 2 4 4 7 6 8 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 3 0 -2 0 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 66 59 51 308 287 309 326 292 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.7 24.6 24.7 24.5 23.1 23.1 22.1 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 109 108 109 107 93 94 84 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 69 69 68 68 63 61 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 19 18 16 13 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -8 -20 -28 -30 -28 -15 -8 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 18 34 34 40 9 26 10 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -2 0 0 -1 -2 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1499 1507 1520 1544 1571 1662 1807 1905 1872 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.8 21.7 22.4 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.3 126.0 126.6 127.2 127.9 129.5 131.6 134.0 137.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 10 11 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -15. -16. -15. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -10. -13. -18. -24. -28. -34. -34. -35. -36. -38. -39. -40. -41. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.2 125.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082021 HILDA 08/04/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.22 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 214.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082021 HILDA 08/04/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##