* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092021 08/04/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 33 34 33 33 30 27 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 33 34 33 33 30 27 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 28 25 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 4 3 1 6 4 8 11 13 18 18 19 31 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -4 -1 0 3 1 5 2 -1 0 0 1 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 60 60 8 296 78 223 234 269 298 291 292 289 259 261 266 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.2 25.3 24.4 23.5 23.6 24.0 24.2 24.3 25.0 25.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 133 131 130 124 115 105 96 97 102 104 105 113 119 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 65 66 64 65 66 66 64 60 55 47 41 36 32 29 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 10 9 8 7 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 55 40 58 69 78 56 45 36 30 19 8 -7 -2 -12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 35 24 36 50 41 28 10 -7 -15 -12 -3 -13 -20 3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 3 3 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2271 2218 2165 2106 2047 1962 1838 1687 1542 1377 1194 1014 836 608 370 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 8 8 9 8 9 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 14. 12. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. -1. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. -13. -18. -21. -21. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.1 134.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092021 NINE 08/04/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.57 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.84 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 16.4% 15.3% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 6.1% 5.5% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 NINE 08/04/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##