* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092021 08/04/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 33 35 36 37 37 38 37 36 33 30 26 24 22 20 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 33 35 36 37 37 38 37 36 33 30 26 24 22 20 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 32 31 29 27 25 23 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 0 2 4 4 4 9 12 14 16 14 15 14 15 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -1 0 2 3 3 -2 -3 -4 0 1 2 2 3 5 SHEAR DIR 47 41 7 71 68 15 2 334 12 8 353 347 326 317 302 309 314 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.2 24.6 23.9 23.5 23.6 23.8 24.0 24.4 24.5 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 132 130 128 124 120 113 107 99 95 96 98 100 105 106 110 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 66 67 66 68 66 64 59 52 47 42 37 32 28 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 13 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 53 56 72 84 69 47 14 0 -13 -23 -33 -29 -35 -29 -19 -5 200 MB DIV 42 34 41 42 39 31 24 -7 -24 -15 -21 -18 -28 -12 -26 -28 -45 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 0 0 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 1 6 3 3 -2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 2196 2124 2076 2029 2005 1923 1852 1754 1666 1574 1477 1386 1288 1184 1093 992 878 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.6 16.1 16.7 17.5 18.3 18.9 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.9 135.5 135.9 136.3 136.5 137.2 137.8 138.6 139.3 140.0 140.8 141.6 142.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 17. 17. 16. 14. 11. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. -0. -4. -6. -8. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 134.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092021 NINE 08/04/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.89 5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 19.2% 17.3% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 7.8% 6.2% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 9.0% 7.8% 5.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 NINE 08/04/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##