* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092021 08/05/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 31 30 26 24 23 22 20 20 19 18 17 16 16 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 31 30 26 24 23 22 20 20 19 18 17 16 16 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 28 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 8 8 6 3 6 12 17 19 20 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 -2 0 2 5 1 -1 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 194 239 284 306 353 270 285 281 269 262 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.4 25.9 25.5 24.6 23.5 23.7 24.0 24.0 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 126 121 117 108 97 99 102 102 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 68 68 66 67 67 62 53 46 39 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 13 13 13 12 10 10 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 90 80 62 44 45 37 25 12 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 76 72 48 28 15 11 -22 -11 7 3 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -2 0 0 -5 -1 0 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2056 2016 1977 1913 1850 1694 1523 1349 1206 1028 819 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.8 18.8 19.9 20.8 21.3 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.0 136.3 136.5 137.0 137.5 138.8 140.3 141.9 143.3 145.1 147.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 7 8 9 9 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 11. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 136.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092021 NINE 08/05/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 4.0% 2.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 6.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 NINE 08/05/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##