* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092021 08/05/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 28 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 28 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 22 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 10 6 1 1 10 14 17 20 22 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 1 2 4 5 -1 4 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 275 305 353 287 269 288 272 260 251 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.2 25.9 25.4 24.9 23.8 23.6 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 124 121 116 111 100 98 101 103 105 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 67 64 65 66 62 57 47 41 35 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 12 13 12 11 8 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 79 65 50 50 44 41 27 23 10 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 41 31 16 14 -3 -25 -7 -1 -8 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 0 0 -2 -4 0 -3 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2005 1945 1886 1812 1739 1595 1415 1234 1091 926 745 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.1 18.1 19.1 20.0 20.6 21.3 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.4 136.9 137.3 137.9 138.5 139.7 141.3 143.0 144.4 146.1 148.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 8 8 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -2. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -7. -7. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -2. -7. -12. -17. -18. -20. -24. -24. -26. -26. -26. -27. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.3 136.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092021 NINE 08/05/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.46 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 4.9% 3.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 6.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 NINE 08/05/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##