* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP092021 08/05/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 35 34 28 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 35 34 28 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 35 33 29 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 7 0 2 5 8 13 17 24 24 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 3 3 5 3 0 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 293 319 245 292 300 295 273 262 257 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 25.9 25.4 24.9 24.5 23.5 23.7 23.9 24.0 24.3 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 121 116 111 106 97 99 101 102 104 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 66 65 61 56 49 42 39 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 13 12 10 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 72 55 50 41 33 26 15 10 -5 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 18 20 29 34 -19 -18 0 8 -6 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 1 0 1 -2 -1 -1 0 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1962 1888 1813 1746 1679 1537 1371 1225 1060 921 776 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.5 18.5 19.5 20.5 21.4 21.9 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.7 137.3 137.9 138.5 139.0 140.2 141.7 143.1 144.8 146.3 147.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -2. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -3. -7. -9. -9. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -7. -13. -17. -20. -22. -26. -27. -28. -29. -29. -30. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.7 136.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092021 JIMENA 08/05/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.37 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 8.2% 6.6% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 8.7% 2.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 JIMENA 08/05/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##