* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP082021 08/05/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 26 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 296 288 278 260 247 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.6 22.8 22.3 21.8 21.5 22.0 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 90 85 80 77 82 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 62 59 57 52 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 9 9 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -15 -3 -10 -18 -26 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 30 19 17 5 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 2 0 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1744 1816 1842 1882 1927 1873 1682 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.8 22.2 22.6 22.9 23.6 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.7 131.8 132.8 133.9 134.9 137.2 139.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -7. -11. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -16. -21. -25. -29. -33. -37. -40. -44. -48. -52. -55. -59. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.3 130.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082021 HILDA 08/05/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.14 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.38 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082021 HILDA 08/05/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##